No need to overhaul overtime

After the Saints thrilling overtime victory in the NFC Championship game, there has been an outpour from pundits and fans to change the overtime rule because the Vikings did not get a possession. According to Sports Illustrated's Peter King, I'll say only one thing about the overtime rule: It stinks.

King goes on to add: I won't repeat every one of my objections to the rule that puts an inordinate amount of importance on the coin flip on overtime winners, but the NFC game was a classic case of why it's a bad idea to not give each team one possession in overtime:

The Vikings called heads, and it came up tails. New Orleans returned the kick to its 39-yard line. That meant if the Saints gained 28 yards, they'd be in field-goal range for Hartley. They got 17 yards in drive sustaining penalties, and 32 yards on their own, and Hartley's 40-yard field goal won it.

On the other sideline, Brett Favre stood waiting for his chance, the same way Peyton Manning waited for a chance that never came 55 weeks ago in San Diego. And I ask you two questions: Do you want the coin flip to have that much importance in determining the outcome of a playoff game? And if you think it doesn't matter, why have only seven teams that won the coin flip since overtime was reinstituted in 1974 chosen to kick off and play defense?
Needless to say, this Friday when NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell addresses the media about the state of the league, undoubtedly, he will be asked about the league modifying the overtime rule. Last week, Commissioner Goodell is on record the competition committee will be looking into making changes to the current overtime rule. Commissioner Goodell points out, historically, 30% of overtime games were decided when the team that wins the coin flip scores on its opening possession. But in recent years that percentage has risen to about 47%.

"I think that's significant," he said. "It's something our committee needs to look at. When you couple that with the fact that our field-goal kickers are much more accurate than they have been in the past, that's a danger. However, the whole point of having an overtime period is to eliminate ties. Even if the league conjures up a new rule for overtime it may open up a new can of worms. NBC analyst Tony Dungy has stated overtime is a problem that might not have a solution. Furthermore, if the NFL decides to go to a two possession system then there is a player safety risk. Another possession for a team could lead to a player suffering a serious injury ie a concussion. Imagine the NFL adopting a two possession rule in overtime, then a player suffers a concussion. This would not be in the best interests of the league.


However, Mike Florio does not see it this way.Pro Football Talk's Mike Florio thinks the rule needs to be changed.

On the other hand, Athan Atsales, LA Times writer, has this statistic on overtime games., And despite people’s complaints, of the five overtime playoff games since 2004, the team that won the toss is 1-4. Furthermore, he opines, So the arguments resurfaced: "Shouldn’t both teams have a chance to have the ball in overtime? … If one team scores on the first try, shouldn’t the other get a chance to tie? … Why not make it like college when each team gets it on the 25-yard? … "

Uh … no, no and absolutely not.

This is what a team should do if it loses the coin toss in overtime, and it’s not too complicated –- stop the other team and force a punt. That strategy applies to the entire game, why should it be different in overtime? Football is a game of offense and defense.



Although both King and Florio make good points, I disagree with both of them. Why make a change based on a recent trend? In the 2008 NFC Championship game, Favre, quarterback of the Packers, had the ball first in overtime. The Packers did not score. At the time, I did not hear anything from Peter King about changing overtime rules. This year, the Packers and Cardinals faced one another in an NFC Divisional Playoff which went into overtime. The Packers won the toss and did not score. Again, I did not hear anything from King. In overtime of a 2004 NFC Wildcard game, Al Harris intercepted a Matt Hasselbeck pass and took it to the house to win the game for the Packers. After the game was over, I did not hear anybody grousing about the Packers not getting the football first. So is King's gripe with the current rules have to do with marquee quarterbacks not getting an opportunity in overtime? Perhaps. The current overtime system works well. Atlanta Falcons President and co-chair of the competition committee Rich McKay agrees. "Sudden death is a good procedure. It's fun, and everyone knows the rules," McKay said. "I would like to see the stats change because I don't like the fact that that the team winning the coin flip now wins 60 percent of the time, and the team winning the coin flip, 40-plus percent of the time, wins it on the first possession." Even if this trend is tipping in the favor of a team winning a coin toss, are we losing sight the game is played by three units: offense, defense, and special teams. Earlier this year, the Denver Broncos defeated the New England Patriots in overtime. In overtime, the Patriots did not have an offensive possession. After the game was over, Patriots head coach Bill Belichick blamed the loss on lack of execution rather than not receiving an offensive possession in the overtime period. "[The] Broncos had a lot of possession passes that kept the chains moving," Belichick said. "They kept the yardage fairly short on third down. We had our chances on a couple when we had our hands on the ball but couldn't come up with it and we just have to make some of those plays. We didn't make them today."
Tennessee Titans head coach Jeff Fisher who also happens to be a co-chair on the competition committee thinks the league needs more study to find out if the most recent numbers are an anomaly or a trend -- that could help determine whether changes are needed. Jeff Fisher aptly sums up this argument. The league must deterimine whether there is a current trend with the coin flip winner. If it is a trend, then the league should follow this idiom: if it ain't broke, do not fix it.

Update: In NFL playoff games since 2004, teams which won the toss are 2-5.

Update from Sports Illustrated: At the annual "State of the League" press conference, Commissioner Goodell does not think the league will change the overtime rule.

FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. (AP) -- NFL commissioner Roger Goodell tackled a number of pressing topics Friday in his annual state-of-the-league address before the Super Bowl.

OT rules unlikely to change
The NFL said again Friday that it likes the league's oft-debated overtime rule.

Goodell pointed to this season's pair of overtime postseason games and called them "two of the most exciting games we've had."

Arizona beat Green Bay in a wild 51-45 overtime game, and the New Orleans Saints earned the right to play in Sunday's Super Bowl against the Indianapolis Colts by beating Minnesota in overtime in the NFC championship game.

The NFL's sudden-death overtime rule has long been debated, especially after college football went to a system where both teams get the ball at least once. Goodell says the NFL hasn't "been able to find a better solution" even after talks with players and coaches.

A change may be possible, Goodell says, adding: "But I wouldn't hold your breath."